Sunday, March 22, 2020

The (mostly) non-fatal coronaviruses:

There are four of them, and as you can see from the graph published (and continuously updated) by the CDC, they are strongly seasonal in the US.

OC43 and 229E have been around for awhile. They were first identified as two out of many viruses that cause the common cold in the 1960s. Unfortunately, according to a longitudinal study done on a group of medical students in the 60's, 229E can be contracted multiple times by the same person, even if they still have antibodies from their last infection. (source in comments). As far as we can tell, SARS and MERS are not like this. That is, survivors appear to be immune to reinfection.

NL63 first transferred to humans in 2004, and uses the same receptor as the covid-19 virus. Interestingly, it prefers children to adults, which kinda shoots down the theory that the receptor is the reason covid-19 avoids children.

HKU1 passed from mice to humans in 2005. It has a different receptor from the covid-19 virus.

The seasonality of all four of these gives me some hope that our current virus will give us a break for the summer, which will give us some time to work on a vaccine.

The CDC respiratory virus surveillance page (the source of the graph) is here: https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/nrevss/index.html

No photo description available.