For those looking for a bit of good news regarding covid-19, this is a figure from a paper that has been submitted, but not yet reviewed. It makes the case that the virus spreads most easily in a narrow range of climate conditions (5-11C (41-52F) average temp). I think their case makes a lot of sense. Aside from the correlation between the largest outbreaks and a narrow temperature band, many viruses, including other coronaviruses, are strongly seasonal. The virus was expected to be severe in nearby areas to the south of China, like Bangkok, which had the first case outside of China. But as of today, there has been only one death in Bangkok, compared to 30 in Washington state. Bangkok has had highs of about 90F for the month of Feb.
I'm a bit surprised that the virus appears not to be spreading rapidly in colder climates. We know that heat kills the virus, but not cold.
Update 3/22/20:
Examples that fit this theory:
- The hottest US states (Arizona, New Mexico) still do not meet the requirement of >6 deaths to get a circle on the map, although many more states in the yellow zone now do.
- Mexico (only 2 official deaths, but I'm not sure how much testing is being done there)
Counter-examples to the theory (i.e. hot climates with more than 6 deaths):
- Indonesia has 48 deaths
- Brazil has 25 deaths
- The Philippines have 25
- Ecuador has 14
- Malaysia has 10
- Australia has 7
Ambiguous cases:
- Spain has had 1756 deaths, and it is in the light orange area.
- Algeria has 17, mostly clustered in the cooler part of the country, which is orange on the map
See also this post: https://coronavirusandcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/03/the-mostly-non-fatal-coronaviruses.html
